The case
A 3.25 total is a quarter line: four or more goals win, exactly three goals refunds half and loses half, and two or fewer lose. Al-Ahli Jeddah scored 12 goals in their last five matches, and I. Toney scored six of them. They meet Al-Fateh, who have a goal difference of -7 after 7 league games in the Pro League and conceded 7 goals in their last five. That run includes both of their home matches, a loss and a draw.
Al-Fateh can also score. M. Batna, W. Kanga and Faisal Al Abdulwahed each scored in the last five games. Al-Ahli Jeddah are favoured, with an implied 68% chance to win, but Al-Fateh can add a goal of their own instead of being shut out. The league averages 2.8 goals per match over 63 matches, and this match profile points above that. We put over 3.25 at 58%, while the 1.85 price at Betano implies 54%.
The risks
The last five meetings averaged 2.4 goals (1-3, 2-1, 0-2, 1-0, 1-1), below this line. Squads of 37 and 42 players mean much has changed since then, so that record is weak evidence either way. If Al-Ahli Jeddah lead by two goals early against a team with three points from seven games, they may slow down, which could keep the total under 3.25.
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