Villarreal double chance holds value as Borussia Dortmund defence is weakened by suspensions

Borussia Dortmund are strong favourites, but the price does not fully account for their home form. The double chance — a bet that pays out if either side wins or the match ends level — covers Villarreal winning or drawing, and it rates at close to 52% against an implied 48% from the market. Borussia Dortmund have won only one of their last five home league matches, while Villarreal are unbeaten in three of their last four away and won the previous meeting between these sides 2-0.

The edge looks larger once the team news is added. Samuele Inacio, who scored twice in Borussia Dortmund's last five matches, is suspended after a red card, and N. Schlotterbeck and R. Bensebaïni are banned as well. That leaves a squad already missing E. Can and G. Konstantelias short three more players, with no fitness test able to change any of it before kick-off.

The head-to-head record is mixed too: the last three meetings produced a 4-0, a 2-2 and a 2-0, with a win each and a draw between the sides, and N. Pépé has scored two of the team's last three goals for Villarreal. Still, the case has real risk attached. F. Mané, who started the last match in defence, is listed as a doubt rather than a confirmed absence, and his return would restore some of Borussia Dortmund's defensive solidity. Villarreal also have their own injury list — Juan Foyth, A. Diatta and Willy Kambwala Ndengushi are all out — and have conceded nine goals in their last five matches, against a Borussia Dortmund attack that has scored 13 in the same span.