CS Constantine v US Biskra: over 2 goals, a small edge

The case

The tip is over 2 goals in CS Constantine against US Biskra, a Ligue 1 match, so the game needs three or more goals. We put the chance at 55%, while the 1.93 price at Betano implies 52%. If exactly two goals are scored, the bet is refunded (a push), so the real question is whether this match reaches three.

CS Constantine's last five matches in all competitions brought 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. That is 19 goals in five games, or 3.8 a game. A team that concedes more than two a game rarely plays a quiet match, even against a weak attack.

Ligue 1 averages 2.3 goals per match over 21 matches, a small cushion above the line. The last five meetings between the clubs ended 3-0, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-3. That is 12 goals, or 2.4 a game: two went over, two landed on exactly two goals and one went under. The squads have changed since then, so this is weak support.

The risks

US Biskra's attack is weak. They scored 3 goals in their last five matches, and those games produced 9 in total (3 scored, 6 conceded), or 1.8 a game. If CS Constantine score once and US Biskra do not, the match ends under.

Exactly two goals is the most likely single result, and a 1-1 or 2-0 refunds the bet, so the edge is small. The sample is also thin, with only three league games played and no season scorer data in the briefing.