FC Porto's miserly defence backs the under 2.75 vs Manchester City

FC Porto have won five games in a row across all competitions, conceding just once and scoring eleven — an average of 0.2 goals against per match, with three of those wins coming at home. That kind of defensive record makes it hard to expect three or four goals against them in an opening UEFA Champions League group match. The two previous meetings between these sides finished 0-0 and 1-3, four goals in total, an average of two per game and below this line, though both squads have turned over significantly since then. Manchester City are without J. Doku, Sávio and Matheus Nunes, while I. Ndiaye — who started the last available lineup behind E. Haaland in a 4-2-3-1 — is a doubt. That removes three of Manchester City's wide and creative options against a defence that has conceded only once in five matches, which supports pricing the under above the 50.5% implied by the current odds. FC Porto have defensive absences of their own: J. Bednarek is suspended after a red card, having started the last available lineup and scored in the recent run, and Z. Sanusi and D. Prpić are also out. J. Kiwior will need a new defensive partner against E. Haaland, and the second recorded meeting between these sides finished 1-3. Manchester City's own matches have been open: ten scored and six conceded in five games is 3.2 goals per match, well above this total. FC Porto have scored eleven goals in their own five games, with William among the scorers and André Silva leading the line, so goals remain possible if the game opens up.