Celta Vigo's goal drought makes Getafe the pick, cushioned by a quarter goal

Celta Vigo have managed only two goals in their last five league matches, conceding five, and have drawn all three of their away games in that stretch — production that rarely wins on the road. Getafe, by contrast, won both of the home matches inside their own uneven run of five, with Enes Ünal scoring twice and getting an assist from Johan Mojica, while Martín Satriano is credited with two assists in that same stretch. The pick backs Getafe on a quarter-goal handicap of +0.25, which — unlike a straight handicap — pays out in full on a home win and refunds half of the bet if the match ends level, a shape built for a favourite that might also draw. Betano prices Getafe at 1.47, an implied probability of 68%, while our own number is 73%; most of that gap comes from the refund a draw provides rather than the market underrating Getafe outright. For context, Celta Vigo's own away win is priced separately at 3.40, an implied 29%, for a side without a win in five matches and missing a starter from a back three; that figure looks closer to 26% once the run of results is weighted in. The confidence on this one is low, which fits a match where both teams are carrying injury and suspension lists rather than clean team sheets. Celta Vigo will be without Marcos Alonso, sent off in their last game and now suspended, and M. Vecino, who is out with a knee problem. Getafe are missing Christantus Uche entirely, have lost Kiko Femenía to suspension after he started the last match, and list Andrés García — a scorer in the recent run — Abdel Abqar and Mario Martín as doubts. Getafe have also conceded seven goals in their own last five matches, so this is not a defence at its best, and if Celta Vigo do win, the handicap loses outright with no partial return; head-to-head results between the two sides include away wins for Celta Vigo by 0-1 and 1-2.