Chicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps: home win or draw (1X)

The case

Double chance 1X pays on a Chicago Fire win or a draw, so only a Vancouver Whitecaps win loses it. We rate it at 65%, against 61.7% implied by the 1.62 price, inside a result split of home 37%, draw 28% and away 35%.

1. Vancouver Whitecaps are missing most of their attack. B. White (12 goals, hamstring injury) and T. Müller (6 goals, leg injury) are out, along with three other scorers, so five of the top six are absent. White and Müller scored 6 of the team's 11 goals in the last five matches. Goalkeeper Y. Takaoka is also suspended after a red card.
2. Chicago Fire still have their two most productive players. P. Zinckernagel has 5 goals and 7 assists, and M. Haile-Selassie has 4 goals, 3 of them in the last five matches. One of them producing may be enough to avoid defeat at home.
3. Recent results fit the pairing. Chicago Fire have not lost in 3 of their last 5 (W D D), and Vancouver Whitecaps lost both of their last two away games. A draw also wins this bet, so the weak home form of Chicago Fire (L D) matters less than it would for a straight win.

The risks

• Chicago Fire are also depleted. R. Lewandowski, R. Lod and J. Bamba are out, about six of the last starting XI are missing, and the team conceded 10 goals in its last five matches. Vancouver Whitecaps are 2nd with a +33 goal difference against +8, and won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
• Lineups are not announced yet. If White or Müller starts, this tip loses most of its edge.