The case
Malaga have scored 2 goals in their last 5 matches, both from Carlos Dotor and Adrián Niño Heredia. Both are listed as missing, and Dotor started the last match. The three players on Malaga's season scorers list have one goal each, so the data shows little scoring depth. Malaga also conceded 9 in those five matches.
Espanyol have Roberto Fernández, who has 6 of the team's 9 listed league goals and scored 4 of their 6 in the last five. Against a defence that conceded 9 in five, one reliable scorer can carry a win. Malaga are 20th with 3 points and a goal difference of -9, while Espanyol are 15th with 7 points and +0. Espanyol won all of the last five meetings, by 0-3, 0-3, 0-3, 1-4 and 0-1, and Malaga failed to score in four of them.
We rate the away win at 41%, while odds of 2.75 imply 36.4%. The gap comes from Malaga's scoring problem, which table position alone does not show.
The risks
L. Cabrera, a starter in Espanyol's last match, is out on a red card, and Espanyol conceded 8 in their last five, so one Malaga goal could bring a draw. Espanyol won only one of their last five and lost two of three away, while Malaga's recent home results were a loss and a draw. A low-scoring game with Fernández quiet could end level, and we would drop this view if he is not in the starting lineup.
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